Hindsight Bias

by U. Hoffrage

• 266 Want to read
• 18 Currently reading

Published October 13, 2003 by Psychology Press .
Written in English

Subjects:

• Memory,
• Psychology,
• Cognitive Psychology,
• Mental Health,
• Psychology & Psychiatry / Cognitive Psychology

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The Physical Object
Format	Paperback
Number of Pages	176
ID Numbers
Open Library	OL8921378M
ISBN 10	1841699381
ISBN 10	9781841699387

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Hindsight Bias by U. Hoffrage and a great selection of related books, art and collectibles available now at Hindsight bias is the tendency of people, with the benefit of hindsight following an event, to falsely believe that they predicted the outcome of that event in the beginning. A person subject to hindsight bias assumes that the outcome he or she ultimately observes is the only outcome that was ever possible.

Hindsight bias: Sometimes called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect, the tendency to see past events as being predictable at the time those events happened. Hostile attribution bias: The "hostile attribution bias" is the tendency to interpret others' behaviors as having hostile intent, even when the behavior is ambiguous or benign. Hot-hand fallacy.   Roese and Vohs propose that there are three levels of hindsight bias that stack on top of each other, from basic memory processes up to higher-level inference and belief. The first level of hindsight bias, memory distortion, involves misremembering an earlier opinion or judgment (“I said it would happen”). The second level, inevitability.   Hindsight bias, somehow, seems to be woven deeply into the fabric of many professions. If you expose your financial track record to a financial planner, he'll tell you all the things that you did right and wrong. This has happened for decades.

Hindsight Bias: A Special Issue of Memory - CRC Press Book With hindsight, we tend to exaggerate what we had known with foresight. This phenomenon can be observed in a memory design in which previous judgements have to be recalled after outcome information has been made available, or in a hypothetical design in which participants receive.   Hindsight bias is a problem because it leads to overconfidence, which leads to more risk taking, which leads to bad decisions, which leads to lower returns. The best way to protect yourself from distorting your past views that were wrong into predictions that were right is to write them down. For example, this is where I stand at the moment. Hindsight bias occurs when we look backward in time and see events are more predictable than they were at the time a decision was made. This bias, also known as the “knew-it-all-along effect,” typically involves those annoying “I told you so” people who never really told you anything. For instance, consider driving in the car with your partner and coming to a T in the road.